Careful analysis of the data concerning flu-related mortality among the elderly makes it clear that although flu-related deaths are declining in that population, the decline is not related to vaccination. That is the conclusion of a team of researchers from the National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and other prestigious institutions.
This important paper should be shared with internists and elderly patients along with their caregivers.
When coupled with the information () recently published by Russel Blaylock, MD, showing that flu vaccines put the elderly at special risk for inflammatory neuropathy, homicide and suicide, this draws a rather compelling picture mitigating against flu vaccination for the elderly.

Medical Director
Natural Solutions Foundation
www.HealthFreedomUSA.org
www.GlobalHealthFreedom.org

Impact of Influenza Vaccination on Seasonal Mortality in the US Elderly Population
Vol. 165 No. 3, February 14, 2005

Lone Simonsen, PhD; Thomas A. Reichert, MD, PhD; Cecile Viboud, PhD; William C. Blackwelder, PhD; Robert J. Taylor, PhD; Mark A. Miller, MD

Arch Intern Med. 2005;165:265-272.

Background Observational studies report that influenza vaccination reduces winter mortality risk from any cause by 50% among the elderly. Influenza vaccination coverage among elderly persons (≥65 years) in the United States increased from between 15% and 20% before 1980 to 65% in 2001. Unexpectedly, estimates of influenza-related mortality in this age group also increased during this period. We tried to reconcile these conflicting findings by adjusting excess mortality estimates for aging and increased circulation of influenza A(H3N2) viruses.

Methods We used a cyclical regression model to generate seasonal estimates of national influenza-related mortality (excess mortality) among the elderly in both pneumonia and influenza and all-cause deaths for the 33 seasons from 1968 to 2001. We stratified the data by 5-year age group and separated seasons dominated by A(H3N2) viruses from other seasons.

Results For people aged 65 to 74 years, excess mortality rates in A(H3N2)-dominated seasons fell between 1968 and the early 1980s but remained approximately constant thereafter. For persons 85 years or older, the mortality rate remained flat throughout. Excess mortality in A(H1N1) and B seasons did not change. All-cause excess mortality for persons 65 years or older never exceeded 10% of all winter deaths.

Conclusions We attribute the decline in influenza-related mortality among people aged 65 to 74 years in the decade after the 1968 pandemic to the acquisition of immunity to the emerging A(H3N2) virus. We could not correlate increasing vaccination coverage after 1980 with declining mortality rates in any age group. Because fewer than 10% of all winter deaths were attributable to influenza in any season, we conclude that observational studies substantially overestimate vaccination benefit.

Author Affiliations: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) (Dr Simonsen) and Fogarty International Center (Drs Viboud and Miller), National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Md; and Entropy Research Institute, Boston, Mass (Dr Reichert).